Windfall Taxes?

I sat down to write this week's column all worked up for a real broadside. Not truly angry, you understand, but snide, suspicious and cynical at the very least.

Real estate prices are going up every day, 50% or more since 1991 in parts of Boulder, 20% plus in the East County. So, I figure, here comes a big, fat property tax increase because the tax base is growing so fast.

No vote, nothing public, tax "rates" stay the same, but money is about to pour into public coffers. The poor, impoverished school system is like Br'er Rabbit whining about being thrown into the briar patch.

I've been warning borrowers for a couple of years that the taxes on the house they have bought will rise fast -- just as soon as the County finds out what has happened to its value. One percent of market value has been a pretty good guide for residential real estate: the house with the $1,500 annual tax tab that you just paid $225,000 for will soon earn $2,250 for the County.

Then I had a little collision with reality. I made a couple of phone calls to affirm the splendidness of my insight.

Wrong.

Not just wrong. Dead wrong. Amendment One or no Amendment One, there is no tax windfall coming for local government, or for schools.

Not only no windfall, but no rapid rise in taxes on individual homes, no matter how fast their values increase.

Without going into detail that would reduce David Bruce to coma, the basic idea is that County tax dollar receipts can't grow more than 5.5% each year. The school revenue component is not really any better.

Though there are minor adjustments for school enrollment and new construction, Amendment One calculations based on the inflation rate come in very close to the 5.5% cap already in place.

This year is an "appraisal" year at the county, meaning the assessor is going to get the first read on appreciation since 1991. Reliable sources (who may need protection) say that the tax levy on some individual homes may actually go down despite a half again increase in value.

I have believed for a long time (in this case, correctly) that the property tax system is designed to prevent citizens from finding out who sets the tax amount, why, and where the money goes. Assessed valuations are lower (usually) than market value to prevent people from arguing; mil levies are impenetrable even for mathematicians and bankers, and the County collects but dispenses to others for spending.

This ornate, obfuscating system has become its own enemy, particularly in the case of school funding. Here we are in the heart of a County-wide boom, and the schools really do have a revenue problem. The enrollment problem is compounded by Boulder's status as the Baby Boomer Capital of the Universe: the progeny of deferred Boomer parenthood is pitter-patting to school all at once. Revenue for schools turns out to be unhinged from current events and common sense.

The tax system is so out of fairness balance that yet more unbalanced proposals appear daily. I'll support most any proposal for open space funding, but these "impact fees" to hit newcomers hardest are an odious idea if those of us already here have deceived ourselves about our own level of taxation. I certainly had.