Prognostications for the New Year are governed here by Peter Drucker’s law: “Nobody can predict the future. The idea is to keep a firm grasp of the present.” Deal. Attitude first, then the particulars. Last year opened with panic, and all year long we looked over our shoulders for its return. Instead, we should go […]
Markets quiet, it is time to look back. One year ago, the terrible market panic post-Lehman had begun to abate, and all mice in the mortgage house eagerly awaited the Fed’s purchases of mortgages. The economy itself was still in a freefall that would not to slow until spring, and tentative recovery in early summer […]
Long-term rates are falling, a brief bout of economic optimism now replaced by renewed “Who knows?” Mortgages are 5-ish (might find a 4-prefix in your stocking) and the 10-year T-note is trying to head back under 3.50%. The optimism crested with a surge in Producer Prices (core up .5% in November), and industrial production better […]
Long-term Treasury yields pierced the post-August high, 3.50%, trading today at 3.57%, but did little damage to mortgage rates still holding close to 5.00%. The proximate causes of the rise: another huge week of Treasury borrowing finally ran into resistance (another $1.4 trillion coming in 2010, so why hurry to buy the paper?), and some […]
Mortgage and long Treasury rates are rising toward four-month highs this morning (5.25% and 3.49%) on a happy surprise in the job market. The monthly survey of big business “non-farm payrolls” found an end to job losses, and got some confirmation from an abrupt drop in the last two weeks’ claims for unemployment insurance. Other […]
